BCS Simulation: Miami Rises to Top Spot

Miami holds the top position in a simulated Bowl Championship Series ranking released Tuesday, with a score of 0.9837. The Hurricanes sit above Ohio State, which posted a 0.9576 score in the alternate metric. This simulation uses data from BCSKnowHow to apply the 1998 to 2013 scoring model to the current 2026 season. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will unveil its official first top 25 on Nov. 3.

Miami’s high ranking stems from a decisive victory over Pittsburgh and the statistical output of quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney. However, the Hurricanes face a schedule weakness. Wake Forest, ranked No. 21 in the Sagarin ratings, is Miami’s only win over a team currently in the Sagarin top 20. Sagarin and Massey computer rankings list Ohio State and Notre Dame ahead of Miami. CBS Sports projects Miami will still secure the No. 1 seed in the official CFP rankings before their next game against Notre Dame in South Bend.

Ohio State occupies the second spot in the simulation. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in both the Massey and Sagarin computer rankings. Their performance may fluctuate without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Freshman Luke Fahey enters a difficult stretch of play against USC and Northwestern. Indiana ranks third with a 0.8408 score. The Hoosiers have won three of their four Big Ten games by a single possession. They defeated Michigan in overtime with only one completion after halftime, a first for head coach Curt Cignetti. Indiana hosts Minnesota on Saturday.

Georgia takes fourth place at 0.8364, leading a group of eight SEC teams in the simulated top 17. The Bulldogs lost only to Auburn, a game where they were favored by three touchdowns. They secured a road win against Alabama. Notre Dame sits fifth at 0.8043 despite a last-second loss to BYU. CBS Sports views the Fighting Irish as likely to finish 10-2 and earn a playoff bid, provided they win their remaining games against Miami and SMU in November.

UCLA is sixth at 0.7944 and remains one of three unbeaten teams in the simulation. The Bruins lost quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season but defeated Wisconsin on Oct. 17 and Oregon the week prior. USC is their final ranked opponent. Utah ranks seventh at 0.7730 and received a first-place vote in the AP poll this week. Miami collected 59 of the 69 available first-place votes, while Ohio State received 10. Utah faces BYU in a Big 12 matchup on Nov. 7.

Kentucky is eighth at 0.7091 and leads the SEC after Week 8. The Wildcats have won six consecutive games since dropping the conference opener to Alabama. They have an overtime victory over LSU and still must play Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri. BYU fell to 0.6017 after losing at UCF but retains a win over Notre Dame. Alabama is 10th and Texas is 11th. Texas is the only team with three top-25 wins and holds the No. 1 strength of schedule in the Massey rankings.

Boise State is the only Group of Six team in the simulated top 25. The Broncos lost only to Oregon in the season opener and have won six games since. Wisconsin entered the AP poll for the first time this week after beating USC. USC does not appear in the computer rankings. The Trojans have Ohio State, Indiana, and unbeaten UCLA on their schedule for the next five weeks.