Oil Holds Near $115 as Iran Asserts Its Policy Will Not Change Despite U.S. Threats

Iranian officials stated on Sunday that their nation's strategic position will remain static regardless of whether President Donald Trump orders a resumption of military strikes. The declaration came as global energy markets remained volatile, with Brent crude trading near $115 per barrel in early Monday sessions.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the uncertainty during a televised appearance in Tehran. He told viewers that discussions of a new conflict had not altered the government's calculations. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He added that the United States and Israel had already attempted similar actions twice and would achieve no different outcome this time.

President Trump framed his own decision-making process in stark terms during an interview on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he said. The comments followed a Friday remark in which he suggested the U.S. might launch another "little Epic Fury," a reference to the joint American and Israeli campaign that began on Feb. 28. Trump also asserted that the U.S. currently controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Speculation in Washington has grown that the president could authorize new attacks after the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday. To support potential operations, a third aircraft carrier group has been deployed to the region. However, American diplomatic staffing in the area has been reduced, complicating ongoing negotiations.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that a window for diplomacy remains open. He said messages are still being relayed to Washington through intermediaries, although direct talks have appeared stalled for several weeks.

Supply concerns continue to drive energy prices. Brent crude rose sharply late last week amid fears related to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Northern Hemisphere is approaching winter, a season when natural gas demand typically increases. The U.K. navy's Maritime Trade Operations center reported on Monday that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Friday. The incident disabled the vessel, though the crew was reported safe. Iran claimed to have struck at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, a claim Trump dismissed as an attempt to inflate prices before the elections.

Regional leaders are moving to ease tensions. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were scheduled to arrive in Tehran on Monday for security talks. They were expected to meet with Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports de-escalation efforts and backs mediation by Qatar and Pakistan. These diplomatic moves follow eight months of active conflict in the region.

Violence also persisted in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition announced it intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh and destroyed two launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed Houthi group claimed it struck Riyadh's international airport with a missile shortly after flights resumed. They also said drones hit oil pumping stations. Earlier attacks this month closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran and its proxies might launch attacks to disrupt Tuesday's elections. "Don't test us," he said. Defense Minister Israel Katz rejected a Channel 12 report of a clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over a new directive, calling the report "entirely baseless." Netanyahu had previously labeled the report "rubbish." The Iranian foreign ministry stated that the outcome of the Israeli election makes no difference to Tehran's strategy.