Knesset Vote: Israel Heads to Ballots Amid Gaza War and Coalition Deadlock

Israeli voters head to the polls Tuesday for the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The contest pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition against a unified opposition, with no side projected to hold a clear path to power. This vote follows a war that has reshaped the country’s political landscape and deepened internal divisions.

A final poll by public broadcaster KAN, released before a publication ban took effect on Friday, projected a near-deadlock. The survey gave the opposition alliance 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated groups, including the Arab-majority lists Ra’am and the Joint List. The 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats to form a government, a threshold neither main bloc appears to meet.

Netanyahu’s side combines Likud with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. United Torah Judaism and Shas join Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, the latter led by ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The opposition unites four movements: Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, Yair Golan’s Democrats, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s party has joined the bloc, and opposition leader Yair Lapid has aligned with it.

Domestic tensions center on security failures preceding the 2023 attacks and the military exemption for the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also cite Netanyahu’s judicial reform efforts as a threat to Israel’s liberal democratic order. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described the election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy for secular and liberal factions.

International pressure has intensified, with several allies sanctioning settlements in the West Bank and others condemning attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. Dozens of envoys left the UN General Assembly on September 24 while Netanyahu spoke. He faces corruption charges filed in 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A loss could leave him more exposed in his trial, which carries the risk of a prison sentence.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest 60 percent turnout among Arabs, which could yield 15 seats for their parties. Campaigners target 70 percent turnout, a high for recent decades. The Supreme Court reversed a Central Elections Committee decision last month that barred Ra’am and the Joint List. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race due to an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu argues his rivals will partner with Arab parties, claiming only Likud can prevent that. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker if no bloc wins a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem do not vote for the government that controls their borders and legal status.