Connecticut Republicans brace for historic loss in Tuesday's midterms
GOP leaders expect their minority to shrink to levels not seen since the post-Watergate era of the 1970s.
By Aiko Nakamura ·
Connecticut politics is set for a historic downturn for the Republican Party when votes are counted Tuesday. The state's legislative elections will determine if the GOP minority becomes smaller than the one following Richard Nixon's 1974 defeat.
Democrats currently control 102 seats in the House and 25 in the Senate. Lawmakers from both parties agree that Democrats will keep comfortable majorities. The main question is how steep the Republican decline will be. In 2016, Republicans won half the Senate seats and came within five seats of a House majority. That remains their high-water mark in a decade.
The 1974 election marked a modern low point for Republicans in the state. They lost 60 House seats in that cycle, dropping from a majority to a 33-118 disadvantage. In the Senate, their numbers fell to a 7-29 minority. Current polling suggests Republicans face a similar erosion of their already small presence.
Democrats expect to gain three or four House seats and two Senate seats. House Majority Leader Jason Rojas said the race hinges on surprise outcomes. "It’s a question of those surprise seats," Rojas said. "I don’t know that there’s a surprise loss for Democrats this year.. But are there surprise wins?"
Four Republican Senate seats are in play. Two of these are in Fairfield County where incumbents are retiring. In the 28th District, Democratic nominee Rob Blanchard challenges conservative Amybeth Laroche. In the 36th, Republican Joe Kelly runs against Jill Oberlander in a district where Democratic voters hold the edge.
Incumbent Senate races are also tight. John Kissel of Enfield faces former Representative David Kiner. Kissel has served since 1992 but has seen his margins shrink. In the 35th District, physician Jeff Gordon faces Ethan Werstler, a 26-year-old UConn graduate. Gordon won the seat with less than 51% of the vote in 2022.
House races show similar patterns. Representative Carol Hall of Enfield faces a rematch with Rick LeBorious. Hall won her last election with only 50.7% of the vote. In the 23rd House District, Democrat Jane Wisialowski seeks the seat left open by retiring Representative Devin Carney.
The Republican ticket features younger candidates in open seats. Will Gifford, a 21-year-old journalism student, runs for the 8th House District after incumbent Tim Ackert retired. Republicans also target Democratic Representative Rebecca Martinez in the 22nd District. The GOP failed to nominate candidates in six Senate districts this year, including one held by a Democrat since 2016.
Party leaders are already looking past Tuesday to the political environment after Donald Trump leaves office. Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding said the party must regroup. "I think both parties regroup after these election cycles," Harding said. Trump has been a major factor in voter turnout, helping Democrats and hurting down-ballot Republicans.
House Minority Leader Vincent J. Candelora noted that Democrats will need to adjust their messaging. "For Democrats, they are going to have to learn how to run without Trump," Candelora said. "If you look at their messaging, it’s very hollow." Republicans hope to shift focus to the high cost of living once the national debate subsides.
Governor Ned Lamont is favored to win a third term. He easily won in 2022 after a close race in 2018. Lamont's centrist fiscal approach has defined the Democratic brand in the state. House Speaker Matt Ritter described Connecticut as fiscally moderate and socially liberal. "I think that defines the governor to a T," Ritter said. He expects Lamont to perform well again in suburbs that previously favored Republicans.
Source: CT Mirror
