Rapidan Energy CEO Sees Oil Topping $100 as U.S. Iran Strikes Resume

Bob McNally, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, stated on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia that the probability of the United States resuming military fighting against Iran is 80%. He projects that this resumption will push Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures above $100 per barrel. The benchmarks currently trade near that level, with Brent at approximately $100 and WTI at $91.

McNally linked the likelihood of renewed conflict to the receding influence of the U.S. midterm elections. He argued that President Donald Trump is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons as a legacy achievement. McNally noted that the Iranian regime remains unwilling to give up its nuclear capabilities, keeping the escalation dynamic intact as long as that core disagreement persists.

Oil markets had previously crossed the $100 mark ahead of the midterms as investors priced in uncertainty regarding the Iran conflict. While Trump stated he would not launch new attacks before the elections, The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington carried out limited strikes according to U.S. officials.

Lombard Odier’s chief economist Samy Chaar and head of investment strategy Luca Bindelli agreed with the view that the lame duck period before the new Congress is sworn in offers a window for Trump to resume strikes. In a note dated Nov. 4, they warned that any renewed campaign could be limited in duration and effectiveness by pressure on U.S. munitions supplies.

Conversely, Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, suggested the market is becoming more convinced that the end of the midterms provides a diplomatic off-ramp. This perspective gained traction after Reuters reported Friday that Iran sent a nuclear proposal to the U.S. through Qatar.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the proposal would be discussed only after Washington met seven demands. These demands include an end to U.S. acts of aggression, the naval blockade of Iranian ports, economic warfare, and the release of Iranian assets. In exchange, Iran would allow ships to proceed freely through the Strait of Hormuz. The official confirmed that Washington is reviewing the proposal but declined to provide further details.

Political tensions between the two nations also intensified on social media. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized U.S. Vice President JD Vance after Vance blamed the war for Republican midterm losses. Ghalibaf posted on X that Vance displayed losing gambler energy and could not walk away from the table. He accused the Trump administration of preparing the next phase of conflict.

Vance posted on Nov. 4 that the war was the reason for the election losses, citing a pollster who found that ending the war was the top issue for former Trump voters who switched to Democrats. Cost of living and inflation were also listed as concerns. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Vance had reached out to an Iranian hard-liner to revive peace talks.

The ongoing conflict has contributed to higher global energy costs. These costs have fed into broader concerns over inflation and the cost of living for consumers and businesses.