Netanyahu retains power as Israeli opposition fails to reach 61-seat majority

Benjamin Netanyahu retained control of Israel’s government following Tuesday’s election, securing a bloc of 53 seats while the opposition coalition gathered 67. This margin left the prime minister in a stronger position to form a governing coalition than his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, whose path to a majority requires support from parties with divergent political ideologies.

The result defied pre-election polling, which had generally predicted a shift in power. The average of final polls from Channels 11, 12, and 13 projected the opposition would win more than 55 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc would secure 50. The newspaper Maariv predicted the opposition would hold 58 seats to Netanyahu’s 48. Only Channel 14 and i24 correctly identified that Netanyahu’s bloc would finish ahead of the opposition, though neither accurately captured the final seat distribution.

Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest single party in the Knesset. This result stands in contrast to the political expectations following the October 7 attack, when public anger at the government was palpable. The prime minister’s bloc recorded its weakest showing in the nine elections held since 2009, yet it still maintained a majority among Jewish parties. This majority allows Netanyahu to attempt a unity government that could include Eisenkot’s Yashar party, as well as the parties led by Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman.

Eisenkot’s path to a 61-seat majority is structurally more difficult. His coalition relies on support from Arab parties, either within the government or as external allies. Some leaders within these parties have declined to label Hamas a terrorist organization, while others reject the definition of Israel as a Jewish state. This ideological gap constrains the opposition’s ability to form a stable government, even though 67 seats voted against Netanyahu.

The campaign focused heavily on the events of October 7 rather than Netanyahu’s legal cases. For the first time in five elections, the opposition did not make the prime minister’s court trials the central issue. Former attorney-general Avichai Mandelblit testified in Netanyahu’s trial during the final two weeks of the campaign, which some analysts suggest gave the prime minister’s supporters new arguments regarding the investigation’s validity. Instead, the opposition emphasized the security failures of that day, but the vote suggests many voters also credited the government for the military outcomes over the subsequent three years.

Approximately three hours after the polls closed, Eisenkot declared that the Israeli public voted against the continuation of Netanyahu’s term. While the opposition won more total seats, the 67-seat count includes 19 held by Arab parties. This leaves the non-Arab change bloc with 48 seats, a number that falls short of the 61 required to form a government. The opposition now faces the task of determining if it can sustain a minority government with external support or if it must wait for another election.

The Knesset will see a large influx of new members. Nearly 50 people have won seats for the first time, representing one of the largest freshman classes in the country’s history. At least 12 of these new members have a direct personal connection to the October 7 events, through bereavement, captivity, or combat participation. This cohort represents a new political generation shaped by the trauma of the war.

A new political force also emerged in the form of the haredi list headed by Moti Leitner. The party advocated for greater integration of the haredi community into Israeli society through workforce participation and education, rather than military service. The list won fewer than 10,000 votes, which is less than 2% of the combined total for the established parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. Another challenger, the Tzeva Shachor party, drew a few hundred more votes than Leitner’s list.

The election results also raised questions about the accuracy of pre-election polling. Several major outlets missed the direction of the vote, predicting a fundamental political landscape that did not materialize. The discrepancy between the projected numbers and the final count has led to scrutiny of the polling methodology used in the final weeks of the campaign.