Israel's 27-Seat Gap Triggers Coalition Crisis
With neither bloc holding the 61 seats needed for a majority, Israeli leaders face a complex 28-day window to form a government or risk a repeat vote.
By Justin Brooks ·
The 27-seat deficit for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition defines the current political crisis in Israel. His bloc, composed of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, secured 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This total falls short of the 61 required for a governing majority, leaving the country in a deadlock.
The opposition, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, holds more seats than Netanyahu's camp. However, Eisenkot’s center-right bloc cannot reach a majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. These parties represent 21% of the population. Eisenkot and his allies rejected this alliance during the campaign, citing disagreements over the war in Gaza and the status of Hamas.
President Isaac Herzog will now consult with party leaders to determine who receives the first mandate to form a government. He is not obligated to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, he will select the candidate deemed most likely to assemble a coalition. That candidate has 28 days to secure 61 votes, with a potential 14-day extension. If both attempts fail, another candidate may be given a chance.
Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the presidential mandate. However, he has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. A unity government remains a possibility, though it would require resolving questions about leadership rotation. President Donald Trump reportedly favors this outcome, having endorsed Netanyahu before the election and claimed it influenced the results.
If no coalition forms, Israel faces a second election. Herzog has urged leaders to avoid this, especially after a vote that drew the highest turnout in decades. Netanyahu may view a repeat election as favorable. He believes Arab turnout could drop if voters feel excluded from government, and liberal Israelis who traveled abroad to vote may be less likely to return.
In the interim, the opposition may use its parliamentary majority to advance legislation. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the Knesset speaker and establishing a state commission to investigate the failures preceding the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. They also aim to reverse laws that critics say weakened judicial independence. These moves would allow opponents to exercise power while negotiations continue.
The threat of renewed war with Iran complicates the process. Netanyahu stated on election night that Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted that Netanyahu has an incentive to restart fighting during the government formation period. An emergency could increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter a unity government, a dynamic that played out after the 2023 attack when Eisenkot briefly joined the war cabinet.
