UCLA analysis finds 42% of names on Trump's voter list missing from California rolls

The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, known as CHIRLA, filed a new analysis in federal court on Saturday. The group questioned the accuracy of a list provided by the Trump administration. This list identified 20,930 individuals as likely non-citizens registered in California. The data came from two scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles. Their review found major errors in the government's numbers.

The UCLA team determined that more than four in every 10 names on the list did not appear on California's voter rolls. Specifically, 8,880 names were absent from the state's current voter files. This figure represents 42 percent of the total entries. The analysis also noted that thousands of potential eligible US citizens were incorrectly flagged as ineligible. Many of the remaining names on the list were confirmed as US citizens or matched to citizens.

The administration delivered this list to state officials in early October. The data serves as the foundation for a lawsuit filed on October 15. The suit asks California to set aside any ballots cast by the people on the list. This would prevent those votes from being counted in the final results. The legal battle is happening in the final days before the midterm elections.

Voters will go to the polls on Tuesday to decide control of the US Congress. The election will also determine key state and local offices. President Donald Trump has stated that a Republican loss of congressional majorities could lead to his impeachment. He has previously targeted California in his criticism of elections. The state is the most populous in the country and will elect 52 members to the House of Representatives.

Trump accused California of cheating in the June 2 primary elections. Several Republican candidates, including Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt, performed poorly in that vote. Under the US Constitution, states manage their own elections. Congress can pass rules, but the administration has pushed its case through federal court. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint for the second time on Friday. The court called the lawsuit unconstitutional.

The court majority wrote that it declined to undermine the Constitution's plain text. Critics, including Governor Gavin Newsom, have used the Elections Clause to rebut the suit. All 50 states already prohibit non-citizens from voting in federal elections. Voter fraud is considered exceedingly rare. Nevada received a similar list of likely non-citizen voters. State officials found that none of the names on that list were actually non-citizens.

The UCLA filing warns that eligible citizens may lose their votes if the government wins. The document states that the review proves the demands of election officials endanger voting rights. It notes that officials acted under criminal and civil threats. The filing was co-signed by Xavier Becerra. He is the Democratic candidate to succeed Newsom as governor. The administration has threatened state officials with prosecution over non-citizen voting. It continues to pursue the lawsuit despite the recent appellate rejection.