Japan Prepares for Shifts in US Policy After Midterm Defeat

Japanese leaders are moving quickly to lock in security guarantees from the United States following Donald Trump’s loss in last week’s midterm elections. With the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for November 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, China, Tokyo is watching for signals that Washington may prioritize a diplomatic deal with Beijing over the stability of its regional allies.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry stated on Monday that Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed to strengthen deterrence and response capabilities within the Japan-US alliance. The two officials met on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris. They also committed to maintaining close communication regarding the situation in the Indo-Pacific, though no specific details were provided on how that communication will proceed.

Experts suggest the urgency stems from Trump’s reduced domestic political capital. Sebastian Maslow, a professor of politics at The University of Tokyo, said he believes the president may use his remaining authority to shift focus toward foreign policy wins. "Japan's concern is that with Trump becoming a lame duck in domestic politics, he will use his presidential authorities to shift his focus to foreign policy," Maslow said. He warned that a US deal with China could allow President Xi Jinping to intensify pressure on Japan.

Estévez-Abe, an associate professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, noted that Japan fears a transactional approach to the region. "Japan fears 'a transactional Trump who treats Taiwan as a bargaining chip,'" she said. She pointed to Trump’s May comments describing US arms sales to Taiwan as "a good negotiating chip with China." Tokyo is also frustrated that the administration has not supported Japan against China’s recent rare earth export restrictions, viewing the dispute as Tokyo’s problem rather than a shared issue.

Washington’s outreach to North Korea and Russia also raises concerns in Tokyo. Estévez-Abe stated that while the US-Japan alliance has not been damaged as severely as NATO, American engagement with Moscow and Pyongyang worries Japanese planners. "The US relies on Japan as its main military base in the Indo-Pacific, so it is not in Washington's interest to embolden Russia and North Korea against Japan," she said. She added that if American softness raises the threat to Japan, trust in the alliance will erode.

Maslow emphasized that Japan’s security strategy relies on the US alliance as a cornerstone. "The reality still is that Japan has no 'plan B' if the alliance unravels," he said. While calls exist for Japan to develop autonomous defense capabilities, Maslow noted that achieving this in the short term is unrealistic due to defense industry limitations and a lack of critical intelligence resources.

Over the past decade, Tokyo has diversified its security partnerships to reduce reliance on a single partner. These efforts include stepping up defense cooperation with EU member states and NATO, forging a quasi-alliance with Australia, and joining minilateral frameworks with the Philippines. This strategy reflects Japan’s desire to play a more proactive role in shaping regional security.

Estévez-Abe said Tokyo hopes no major clashes erupt in the region for the remaining two years of Trump’s term. She noted that Washington’s resolve is not currently being tested, and Japan awaits a new administration that may be "strategically more amenable." Maslow countered that "hope is not a strategy." He argued that Tokyo must maintain efforts to protect the alliance and demonstrate its own commitments through increased defense spending and safeguarding economic security.

The next major test of these diplomatic efforts is the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Leaders from the United States, China, and Russia are expected to meet on the sidelines of the event. Tokyo will monitor these interactions closely for any signs of a shift in Washington's policy toward the Indo-Pacific.